« Le trou des fonds de pension américains se situe entre 1,6 et 4 trillions ! Ils sont obligés de prendre de plus en plus de risques. Ils vont vers les placements alternatifs qui sont peu sûrs, plus complexes et moins liquides.
La surévaluation des actifs, la fin du Quantitative Easing, la hausse des taux vont mettre les portefeuilles à rude épreuve.
L’heure de vérité sonnera dès que le prochain marché baissier se développera ».
Bruno Bertez, le 2 janvier 2018
Pension Funds’ Dilemma: What to Buy When Nothing Is Cheap?
« The largest U.S. public pension fund debated in December whether to sell more than $50 billion in stocks as global markets raced higher. But in the end, the board of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System decided it was fine to hold more.
Retirement systems that manage money for firefighters, police officers, teachers and other public workers aren’t pulling back on costly bets at a time when markets are rising around the world.
Some public pension funds are adding to traditional allocations of stocks and bonds while both are expensive. Others are loading up on more private-equity or real-estate holdings that are less liquid and sometimes carry high fees.
How much risk to take is a question facing all investors as they enter 2018. « Everything is overvalued,” said Wilshire Consulting President Andrew Junkin, who advises public pension funds. “There’s no magic option out there.”
In the public pension world, the willingness to chase expensive assets is the product of the core challenge most funds face—how to fulfill their mounting obligations to workers and retirees.
Decades of low government contributions, overly optimistic assumptions, overpromises on benefits and two recessions have left them with deep funding holes at a time when retirees are accelerating cash outflows. Estimates of their current combined funding shortfall vary from $1.6 trillion to $4 trillion.
The goal of most pension funds is to pay for future benefits by earning 7% to 8% a year. After the 2008 financial crisis, many funds tried to hit those marks by lowering their holdings of bonds as interest rates dropped, and by turning to real estate, commodities, hedge funds and private-equity holdings.
These so-called alternative investments rose to 26% of holdings at about 150 of the biggest U.S. funds in 2016, according to the Public Plans database, compared with 7% more than a decade earlier ».
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